Traffic Predict
Bakersfield Traffic and the Economy
In August 2026, weekday freeway traffic in Bakersfield was 2.6% higher than a year earlier, with gas at $5.13 a gallon (+27% on the year).
Do gas prices and jobs move traffic here?
- Gas prices: a 10% rise in gas prices went with 0.40% more traffic than a year earlier, on average (a weak link: correlation 0.19).
- Unemployment: a 1-point rise in unemployment went with 0.44% less traffic than a year earlier, on average (a weak link: correlation -0.17).
Over 86 months, each compared with the same month a year earlier (so seasons cancel out); the pandemic months (March 2020 through 2021) are left out.
Freeway traffic compared with a year earlier
Month by month
| Month | Traffic vs a year earlier | Gas price | Gas vs a year earlier | Unemployment | Change on the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | +2.6% | $5.13 | +27% | – | – |
| July 2026 | +4.9% | $4.94 | +23% | 8.4% | -0.6 pts |
| June 2026 | +2.0% | $5.21 | +26% | 8.4% | -0.6 pts |
| May 2026 | +0.8% | $5.59 | +32% | 8.5% | -0.5 pts |
| April 2026 | +1.7% | $5.38 | +27% | 8.6% | -0.3 pts |
| March 2026 | +3.1% | $4.89 | +19% | 8.7% | -0.1 pts |
| February 2026 | -1.0% | $3.98 | -3% | 8.8% | 0.0 pts |
| January 2026 | +2.9% | $3.68 | -4% | 8.9% | +0.2 pts |
| December 2025 | +2.4% | $3.87 | +2% | 8.9% | +0.2 pts |
| November 2025 | +6.3% | $4.12 | +5% | 8.9% | +0.2 pts |
| October 2025 | +5.4% | $4.18 | +4% | – | – |
| September 2025 | +3.1% | $4.23 | +3% | 9.0% | +0.2 pts |
| August 2025 | +2.1% | $4.05 | 0% | 9.0% | +0.2 pts |
| July 2025 | +2.9% | $4.03 | -3% | 9.0% | +0.2 pts |
| June 2025 | +4.2% | $4.15 | -5% | 9.0% | +0.2 pts |
| May 2025 | +1.6% | $4.23 | -9% | 9.0% | +0.3 pts |
| April 2025 | +2.4% | $4.25 | -11% | 8.9% | +0.2 pts |
| March 2025 | -0.6% | $4.11 | -5% | 8.8% | +0.2 pts |
| February 2025 | +3.9% | $4.08 | +1% | 8.8% | +0.2 pts |
| January 2025 | +3.3% | $3.84 | -4% | 8.7% | +0.1 pts |
| December 2024 | +1.8% | $3.80 | -8% | 8.7% | +0.2 pts |
| November 2024 | +2.3% | $3.91 | -13% | 8.7% | +0.2 pts |
| October 2024 | +4.5% | $4.02 | -20% | 8.7% | +0.3 pts |
| September 2024 | +0.4% | $4.10 | -19% | 8.8% | +0.5 pts |
| August 2024 | +3.1% | $4.07 | -15% | 8.8% | +0.6 pts |
| July 2024 | +1.6% | $4.18 | -8% | 8.8% | +0.7 pts |
| June 2024 | +0.4% | $4.35 | -4% | 8.8% | +0.7 pts |
| May 2024 | +3.8% | $4.66 | +3% | 8.7% | +0.7 pts |
| April 2024 | +2.0% | $4.76 | +6% | 8.7% | +0.7 pts |
| March 2024 | +8.3% | $4.34 | -1% | 8.6% | +0.7 pts |
| February 2024 | +1.9% | $4.03 | -3% | 8.6% | +0.8 pts |
| January 2024 | +0.2% | $4.01 | 0% | 8.6% | +0.9 pts |
| December 2023 | -0.3% | $4.12 | +1% | 8.5% | +1.0 pts |
| November 2023 | +2.1% | $4.47 | -7% | 8.5% | +1.1 pts |
| October 2023 | -1.2% | $5.03 | -7% | 8.4% | +1.2 pts |
| September 2023 | +3.2% | $5.08 | +4% | 8.3% | +1.2 pts |
How this is measured
Traffic: for every freeway sensor in Bakersfield, the average number of vehicles on a weekday in the month, compared with the same sensor in the same month a year earlier. Only sensors with data in both months count, so new or retired sensors don't look like more or less traffic. Gas: average price of regular gasoline in West Coast average (U.S. Energy Information Administration). Unemployment: the Bakersfield metro area (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Economic data via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Road sensors: Caltrans PeMS.
See also: is Bakersfield traffic getting worse? and gas prices and driving nationwide.