Traffic Predict
Bay Area Traffic and the Economy
In August 2026, weekday freeway traffic in the San Francisco Bay Area was about the same as a year earlier, with gas at $5.62 a gallon (+22% on the year).
Do gas prices and jobs move traffic here?
- Gas prices: a 10% rise in gas prices went with no measurable change in traffic than a year earlier, on average (a weak link: correlation 0.01).
- Unemployment: a 1-point rise in unemployment went with 0.57% less traffic than a year earlier, on average (a moderate link: correlation -0.30).
Over 86 months, each compared with the same month a year earlier (so seasons cancel out); the pandemic months (March 2020 through 2021) are left out.
Freeway traffic compared with a year earlier
Month by month
| Month | Traffic vs a year earlier | Gas price | Gas vs a year earlier | Unemployment | Change on the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | 0.0% | $5.62 | +22% | – | – |
| July 2026 | -1.7% | $5.54 | +20% | 4.1% | -0.4 pts |
| June 2026 | -5.4% | $5.78 | +20% | 4.1% | -0.3 pts |
| May 2026 | -1.0% | $6.20 | +23% | 4.2% | -0.2 pts |
| April 2026 | -1.6% | $5.94 | +19% | 4.2% | -0.1 pts |
| March 2026 | -0.1% | $5.52 | +15% | 4.3% | 0.0 pts |
| February 2026 | -1.4% | $4.62 | -5% | 4.4% | +0.1 pts |
| January 2026 | -2.5% | $4.24 | -5% | 4.4% | +0.1 pts |
| December 2025 | -0.8% | $4.33 | -1% | 4.5% | +0.2 pts |
| November 2025 | +0.2% | $4.56 | 0% | 4.5% | +0.2 pts |
| October 2025 | -0.1% | $4.66 | -4% | – | – |
| September 2025 | +2.3% | $4.67 | -6% | 4.5% | +0.2 pts |
| August 2025 | +0.6% | $4.61 | -2% | 4.5% | +0.2 pts |
| July 2025 | +2.7% | $4.61 | -4% | 4.5% | +0.3 pts |
| June 2025 | +0.4% | $4.80 | -4% | 4.4% | +0.3 pts |
| May 2025 | +0.2% | $5.03 | -6% | 4.4% | +0.3 pts |
| April 2025 | +1.5% | $4.99 | -10% | 4.3% | +0.2 pts |
| March 2025 | +0.6% | $4.80 | -4% | 4.3% | +0.2 pts |
| February 2025 | +1.2% | $4.85 | +5% | 4.3% | +0.2 pts |
| January 2025 | +2.0% | $4.45 | -5% | 4.3% | +0.2 pts |
| December 2024 | +0.3% | $4.37 | -8% | 4.3% | +0.2 pts |
| November 2024 | +1.1% | $4.56 | -10% | 4.3% | +0.3 pts |
| October 2024 | -0.4% | $4.83 | -14% | 4.3% | +0.3 pts |
| September 2024 | -4.5% | $4.95 | -11% | 4.3% | +0.4 pts |
| August 2024 | -0.4% | $4.70 | -9% | 4.3% | +0.6 pts |
| July 2024 | -0.8% | $4.79 | -2% | 4.2% | +0.6 pts |
| June 2024 | -0.5% | $4.99 | +3% | 4.1% | +0.6 pts |
| May 2024 | +0.9% | $5.37 | +11% | 4.1% | +0.7 pts |
| April 2024 | -0.3% | $5.54 | +12% | 4.1% | +0.7 pts |
| March 2024 | +2.6% | $5.00 | +2% | 4.1% | +0.8 pts |
| February 2024 | -0.6% | $4.60 | -3% | 4.1% | +0.9 pts |
| January 2024 | +2.3% | $4.66 | +4% | 4.1% | +0.9 pts |
| December 2023 | -0.7% | $4.72 | +4% | 4.1% | +1.0 pts |
| November 2023 | +1.1% | $5.09 | -5% | 4.0% | +1.0 pts |
| October 2023 | +1.5% | $5.59 | -8% | 4.0% | +1.1 pts |
| September 2023 | -0.1% | $5.54 | -1% | 3.9% | +1.1 pts |
How this is measured
Traffic: for every freeway sensor in the San Francisco Bay Area, the average number of vehicles on a weekday in the month, compared with the same sensor in the same month a year earlier. Only sensors with data in both months count, so new or retired sensors don't look like more or less traffic. Gas: average price of regular gasoline in the San Francisco-Oakland metro area (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Unemployment: the San Francisco-Oakland metro area (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Economic data via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Road sensors: Caltrans PeMS.
See also: is Bay Area traffic getting worse? and gas prices and driving nationwide.